Changing times

The downside of shelter-in-place and stay-at-home policies has necessarily translated into no work, no pay, and closed businesses. There are reasons why reopening Missouri appears to be overtaking risks of interaction, as Gov. Parsons points out. There are additional facts which define this moment in our nation and they are encouraging, not discouraging.
Guidance from the medical community has fluctuated and, at times, even been contradictory. But time is now making some national statistics, presented by the Association of Mature American Citizens, stand out:
More than 50% of COVID-19 deaths have occurred in 1% of U.S. counties, which encompass roughly 15% of the population; more than 50% of counties have had no deaths.
While more than 119,000 Americans have died of COVID-19, roughly a quarter were in nursing homes. These deaths accelerated when governors relocated COVID-19 patients into nursing homes – often over local objections.
For context, annually America loses more than 635,000 to heart disease, 598,000 to cancer, 161,000 to accidents, 154,000 to chronic lower respiratory infections (prior to COVID-19), 142,000 to stroke, 80,000 to diabetes, 51,000 to the flu (and flu-related pneumonia), 70,000 to drug abuse, 50,000 to kidney disease, 45,000 to suicide, 39,000 to septicemia, and 38,000 to chronic liver disease. Like COVID-19, these diseases are discoverable, preventable, and treatable.
On the infectious disease front, globally we lose 1.5 million annually to tuberculosis, while 140 million get dysentery and 1.5 million die of diarrheal diseases. Fully 228 million contract malaria, more than 400,000 dying, and 36 million acquire HIV annually, 1.1 million dying.
While facts continue to change, a tipping point is here. In short, the impact of COVID-19 is obviously significant. Remember how early projections by the Imperial College of London predicted the virus killing 2.2 million Americans, and NIH’s infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci projected a possible 1.5 million American death count? The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s model projected up to 240,000 deaths, a number now revised downward by 40%.
This is not to criticize those early warnings. What is known today is certainly different than when decisions then were forced to be made. The virus may be tapering permanently – or may not be. Our future is unknown, especially in anticipation of a new flu season next fall. But we may know more in the next few weeks when incubation ends for thousands of persons who threw caution to the wind and protested in dozens of cities across the nation, absent masks and distancing.
Meanwhile, perhaps the biggest decision looming ahead is as nearby as the closest school. Should schools continue to be closed, will our students “fall behind?”
Every problem also presents opportunity, even this coronavirus pandemic. Some wanting to revise our current education system suggest Americans should hit the reset button after the pandemic fades. One idea is to replace the way we group students in school by age with groups defined by individual aptitudes and skill sets. Schools have an opportunity to use the current crisis as a teachable moment for their students, using Zoom and other efficiencies to great advantage. If carried out to a prolonged application, then will schools be wed to the notion that a child’s “grade level” determines the content they should learn and at what pace?
These days of the pandemic are creating interesting discourse on what’s in our future.