by Joe Snyder
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Our Department of Defense has released its annual report on China’s capability in the Pacific. What’s most worrisome is, China’s threat is not based on a massive fleet to counter our own naval power, but rather on possible deployment of anti-ship missiles and maritime strike aircraft, some obtained from Russia.
What’s troubling is, the Chinese are rapidly developing the ability to strike far out into the Pacific (as far as the Mariannas and Guam) where we have Naval bases. It may confirm the Chinese are moving toward a strike capability against our Seventh Fleet. If this proves accurate, the concern is justified since WWII the U.S. has controlled all the world’s oceans.
No Naval force in history has ever been as powerful as the U.S. Navy. It cannot be everywhere all the time but it has the capability of being in several places at the same time, and to move at will without fear of being challenged. This has meant that the U.S. could invade another nation but other countries couldn’t invade the U.S. The U.S. has launched invasions in the Iraq, Kosovo, Somali, Gulf and Vietnamese wars without ever having to fight to protect lines of supply and communications. It has been able to impose Naval blockades at will without firing a single shot.
This has shaped global history since 1945. The problem today is the U.S. has the ability to threaten basic Chinese interests and China is developing a capability to threaten basic American interests. The intensions of both are unpredictable. China is turning to Russia for technology and buying Russian missile and aircraft technology and want more. The Chinese do not want to take this arrangement so far as to anger America. China is walking a fine line according to most experts.
America is now back where it was before the 9/11 attacks. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld came into office with two views. The first one was China was the major challenge to the U.S. The second was the development of high-tech weapons was essential to the U.S. Today China is our major challenge and the big test will come in space technology.
Space-based systems will provide that ability.
There is an old adage among military people that generals prepare for the last war. This has been frequently true. The Chinese challenge in the Pacific dilutes the odds that a far away land-based empire could threaten U.S. interests. They tried us once but lost. Each side is rather defensive at the moment. Both sides see a possible threat in the future. This is the time when conflicts are in the planning.