Post Scripts: A shift in the balance of European power?

Every now and then while reading through various news sources I receive from newspapers, news magazines, television and the Internet, I receive a little signal from somewhere in my head: "Whoa! This could be trouble down the road."

A few days ago I read an item that worries me. Russia and Germany are considering converting a great chunk of Russia’s $14 billion debt to Germany into equity stakes in German companies, which would make Germany a major shareholder in Russian industry. This deal represents a historic and major move in forging a close geopolitical partnership between Russia and Germany.

This unusual association between two countries, which history shows are hardly admirers of one another, will strengthen Russia’s attempt at revival, and Germany could wind up as a leader of a united Europe with Russia on its side. Such a development would greatly weaken U.S. influence in Europe, while dramatically strengthening Germany and Russia.

This move, if it materializes, would greatly shift the balance of European power.

Both nations have agreed in principle to trade a large share of Russia’s $14 billion debt, The New York Times reported. Under consideration is giving to Germany a much greater share in Gazprom, Russia’s huge natural gas export monopoly. Germany’s ruhrgas now holds only 4 percent of Gazprom.

Obtaining several billion dollars worth of stakes in Russia’s business, would make Germany a major stockholder in Russian industry, giving Berlin a strong voice in Moscow. In addition, it would further tie Berlin’s interests to economic and political stability in Russia. Russia already supplies about 40 percent of Germany’s gas needs.

"Okay," some of you are thinking." "What’s the problem?"

The problem is that increasing ties between these two nations, with their ties to expansionism and their history of brutal wars and conflicts, may wind up with far more significance than a desire to distribute natural gas. History shows neither country is reluctant to plan for war and all of war’s horrors. In the past Germany has shown that it can conduct a war with more skill and finesse than any other except, sadly for them, the U.S. whose production of war materiel proved an overwhelming factor in WW2.

Russia‘s military is been best known for its sheer size which, in most instances has proven overwhelming. Who can ever forget the heroism and sacrifices of the defenders and the people of Stalingrad? Yet the Soviet military is no match for a modern military force, well trained, well equipped, well fed, and paid regularly.

However, put together the millions of men available in Russia for military service, with the military skills of the Germans, and the world would see one magnificent and powerful killing machine! Perhaps a contract between the two powers for heating fuel is not a prediction of danger for the future. None-the-less, the ambitions of the German nation over the centuries, and the bullying tactics of the Russians recorded in the history books, makes me worry over this new cooperative alliance, for now at least, presumably to share heating fuel.